December 24 Notes

CoT are now showing managed money at about 53,800 net long. That is a bullish figure although the commercials are still hanging around with moderate sized hedges. They have barely budged on long positions. With the market thinned out a move either way can not be ruled out including rampant short attacks from the Boyz that might cause the commercials to cover more aggressively.

-That said gold sentiment is at a generation low, signalling that a good rally could be triggered, probably corresponding with a disastrous XMAS retail season. A trade war with China can be added to a long list of triggers. Source: IWB

-Insiders have moved on a few names, primarily Teranga with Mimran in nearly every day. I added more at 71 and 64 Cdn.

-The insider signal on Premier worked nicely and I caught the bottom there before the nice rebound.

-Almaden got tossed last week, and I entered with three trades at 83, 80 and 76 cents, as it closed the week at 92. I bought Victoria at 31 cents US (41.5 CDN).

-Also I added to NGD at 3.03. I used this name too early, but had expensive covered calls on that that will reduce my cost. I am heavily weighted there, and am done.

-I am going to do this with Pretium, using Feb 7 naked puts. In revisiting that old name I see they are about a half a year from opening a 500,000 oz low cost mine. As that moves to on to completion and with a bit of POG recovery, that stock should be rerated a good 50% or more higher.

-I bought SPPP at 6.76.

-Stinky bidding the tax loss season tosses have allowed nice entries, and there have been a series of better acting reversals. I do have my trading screen up, with alerts set in the background in case the bargain names are indiscrimately given away like AAU was last week.  I have made those names known in the last month and a half. We aren’t seeing the across the board insider buying witnessed at the silly season bottom in 2015, so this may still be a work in motion. I don’t see major downside and far more upside.  I am continuing to be a buyer, but selectively and not all in.

I am seeing a repeat of the same pattern seen before in these markets. When the super-sales are on, nobody is interested. I see this in my traffic here. This is one reason I ended subscriptions back at the market top in July after distributing most of my PM holdings. I don’t take it personally, but on the other hand I have better things to do than talk to walls and play this little market psychological game with others.

Meanwhile the TNN site has grown substantially and at times has capacity strains. Since all my work is gratis and labor of love to begin with, I will be taking Winter Actionables off line sometime in the next month or two to free up space for TNN.

  • loantech

    Russ will I miss your metals market blog. Will you have a section on TNN covering the same? Or posting somewhere else?

    • I’m done posting. TNN has an entirely different focus. If you have another forum where people are discussing this, let me know and I may join in. I still like the exchange of ideas and do have some interest in the sector.